Hindsight is something that no-one can deny is clearer than foresight.
Looking back, would the CND have wasted their time? Looking back would Neville Chamberlain have said “… peace in our time”? Would First World War Field Marshalls send people over the top each time it failed?
And sometimes, with that hindsight, pundits, experts and others commentators talk about the foolishness of the person who caused a failure. In football,for example, Alan Hansen, Gordon Strachan and Gary Linekar regularly ask each other — only slightly rhetorically — what the Manager was thinking.
But sometimes that foresight is genuine. Before the Human Rights Act was introduced the Conservatives warned Labour that it would cause particular problems. Before the Euro was introduced, Brits warned the Germans (if only informally and through the general public) that it would not improve matters. Finally, before the Iraq war people warned, in large numbers, that it could be another Vietnam (it’s not yet that bad, but how long will we be there?)
And since 1998 the Campaign for an English Parliament has been warning that failure to establish a referendum on an English Parliament will cause friction between the English and Scottish and that it would, eventually, be the cause of the end of the Union. I’m not used to linking to the Guardian but Iain Dale’s got himself an article there and I feel it is just about accurate on this issue:
Opponents of an English Parliament have been very successful in creating a number of myths. The first is that it would lead to the break-up of the United Kingdom… The bigger danger to the future of the UK is if the issue is not addressed, and the sense of injustice engendered by the status quo is allowed to fester.
I can give you another prediction:
If the Conservatives are outflanked on this issue by the LibDems then it will spell trouble for the Conservative policy of English Votes on English Matters. It will, in the end, spell trouble for the party’s ability to maintain this policy and it will be painted very badly by the media.
In the long-term both the two main constitutional issues will come to a head. The EU and English devolution will either result in the end of England as a country or allow England to become the country that English people want it to be. The choices are clear to everyone now and it will be no good europhiles or those against English devolution pretending that there was a consensus or that the perils were not made clear.
The policy reviews that Cameron is undertaking are a massive opportunity for the Conservatives to come down on the right side of these key arguments. Failure now, even with an election win in 2009 or 2010 would be disastrous.
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